By Anoop Saxena
Blaspur Village, Kasna Uttar Pradesh: Standing in the middle of his parched field, farmer Samir Bhati gazes across the cracked earth, waiting for the monsoon that has sustained generations before him. The winds blow dust across his farm, but there is little sign of the rain that millions across South Asia desperately need.
“Farming is like a pebble,” he says philosophically. “The field tells you: I will not let you starve, but I will not let you move forward either. That is the story of the farmer.”
Sami’s struggle reflects a growing concern across South Asia as meteorologists warn that a powerful El Niño weather pattern, combined with record global temperatures, could bring severe disruptions to the region’s monsoon season.
El Niño, a periodic warming of ocean waters in the eastern Pacific, alters weather patterns around the globe. While it often brings heavy rainfall and flooding to parts of the Americas, it can cause droughts and below-average rainfall in countries such as India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Australia.
This year, scientists fear the impact could be particularly severe.
The United Nations and climate monitoring agencies have warned that the current El Niño is developing against the backdrop of a planet already warmed by human-induced climate change. The combination raises concerns about stronger heatwaves, erratic rainfall, and increased pressure on food production.
For India, the stakes could hardly be higher. The annual monsoon delivers nearly 70 percent of the country’s rainfall and remains the lifeline of an agricultural sector that supports hundreds of millions of people.
“The situation is very bad at the moment,” says Samir “If it rains at the right time, crops grow at the right time. But there is no rain. We have to wait, and the heat is unbearable.”
For weeks, large parts of India and neighboring countries have experienced temperatures above 45 degrees Celsius. The intense heat has already claimed lives and damaged crops, increasing anxiety among farmers waiting for relief from the monsoon.
Agricultural expert and activist Devinder Sharma warns that the combination of heatwaves and El Niño could be devastating.
“We have experienced heatwaves before,” Sharma says. “But when extreme heat is accompanied by El Niño, agriculture faces a double blow. Crops suffer from both high temperatures and reduced rainfall.”
In villages across northern India, farmers gather under sparse shade to discuss the changing weather. Some insist rainfall remains in God’s hands. Others increasingly rely on weather forecasts and scientific predictions to guide planting decisions.
Those forecasts offer little comfort.
India’s Meteorological Department has indicated that El Niño conditions are strengthening and that seasonal rainfall may remain below the long-term average. For farmers already struggling with rising costs, the implications are worrying.
“Indian agriculture is already under pressure because of rising fertilizer and fuel costs,” explains Akshit Sangomla of the Centre for Science and Environment. “El Niño could further reduce water availability, especially in rain-fed agricultural districts that depend almost entirely on seasonal rainfall.”
Nearly half of India’s agricultural land lacks reliable irrigation infrastructure and relies directly on the monsoon. Delayed or inadequate rainfall can translate into lower yields, reduced incomes, and higher food prices.
Many farmers say they have noticed dramatic changes in weather patterns over the past decade.
“Earlier, the monsoon had a timetable,” Samir says. “Now there are storms, flash floods, and sudden rainfall. It can rain at any time. Nothing is predictable anymore.”
Climate scientists note that extreme weather has become increasingly common as global temperatures rise. Long dry spells are often followed by intense downpours that the hardened soil cannot absorb, leading to floods that destroy crops and infrastructure.
The concern extends beyond India. In Bangladesh, meteorologists are monitoring the absence of the crucial pre-monsoon rains known as Kalbaishakhi. These storms normally help prepare the ground for the arrival of the main monsoon. Without them, both agriculture and water management become more difficult.
Experts warn that the current El Niño is unfolding in a world already significantly warmer than it was before the industrial era. This combination could push temperatures and heatwaves to unprecedented levels over the next two years.
Food security is becoming a growing concern. Rice production, a cornerstone of diets across Asia, is particularly vulnerable to erratic rainfall.
Sharma recalls previous El Niño episodes that reduced rice yields after rains failed during critical growing periods. “If a similar situation develops this year,” he says, “we could be looking at a serious agricultural crisis.”
India has already taken precautionary measures by restricting some rice exports and issuing El Niño advisories in nearly 200 districts. Yet for many small farmers, such warnings provide little practical protection.
“Farmers cannot prepare much because they are poor,” says Kanwal Singh, another farmer from the region. “In the end, we still depend on the monsoon.”
As dark clouds continue to evade the horizon, millions of farmers across South Asia remain caught between hope and uncertainty. For them, the arrival of the rains is not merely a weather event. It is the difference between prosperity and hardship, between security and survival.
Anoop Saxena is a senior journalist with more than three decades of experience covering South Asia for leading international media organizations. Based in New Delhi, he has reported extensively on politics, diplomacy, climate change, economic development, social issues, and regional conflicts across the Indian subcontinent
