In an article published in NDTV, former Foreign Secretary Kanwal Sibal argues that recent US military actions against Iran have deeply unsettled Gulf nations that long believed American bases on their soil guaranteed security.
Sibal contends that the US decision to eliminate Iran’s top leadership, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, came despite ongoing diplomatic negotiations mediated by Oman. He notes that discussions on Iran’s nuclear programme — covering enrichment, stockpiles and International Atomic Energy Agency inspections — were reportedly progressing before President Trump ordered military strikes, repeating what Sibal describes as a pattern seen during the 12-day conflict in June 2025.
According to Sibal, Washington’s focus on Iran’s nuclear ambitions appears selective, especially given Israel’s undeclared nuclear capability and the US stance toward countries like North Korea and Pakistan. He argues that Iran, as a signatory to the NPT, retains the right to peaceful uranium enrichment and that no conclusive proof has emerged of a clandestine weapons programme.
The article questions the viability of regime-change strategies without ground intervention, citing past US interventions in Iraq, Libya and Syria as cautionary examples. Sibal suggests that destabilising Iran could have severe regional consequences.
He highlights growing anxiety in Gulf countries — including the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia — as Iranian retaliatory strikes target US-linked bases and critical infrastructure. These attacks, he writes, have shaken confidence in American security guarantees and exposed vulnerabilities in the region’s economic and energy networks.
Sibal also warns of broader implications, particularly for India. Any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz or spike in oil prices would severely impact oil-importing nations like India, given its energy dependence and large diaspora in the Gulf.
He concludes that de-escalation is crucial and notes that India’s diplomatic balancing at the United Nations will face a significant test in the evolving crisis.
Kanwal Sibal was Foreign Secretary and Ambassador to Turkey, Egypt, France and Russia, and Deputy Chief of Mission in Washington.
